The Most exciting pro sport in America
"Any given Sunday". This is more than just a phrase (or a pretty decent movie w/ Al Pacino, Jamie Foxx, and an underrated LL Cool J). It really does mean what it was meant to mean. In the NFL these days, any team can win a game on "any given Sunday" regardless of their competition. It is simply because unlike the other American pro sports, there is no longer a huge difference between the haves and the have nots.
Examples you want, well examples I have. Today, the Chicago Bears started the day undefeated. Their defense was the best in the league, and has been drawing comparisons to their 1985 counterparts. Even the Bears offense which in previous years had been thier weakness, was tearing up the league. Today, they hosted (thats right, played in Chicago) the hapless Miami Dolphins. The 1-6 Phish have been one of the (if not the) worst team in the league this year. They cant run the ball. Their line has more resembles a group of matadors much to the chagrin of both of the guys who have started at QB for the team. Their defense has a solid front seven, but a weak secondary, and hense the Phins have only 1 win this year, squeeking out a "W" against simillary hapless Tennessee. Today should have been a shalacking. One team should have dominated on the ground, easily disposing of the other. And so it was, except not the way you would have thought. The mighty Bears defense was run all over by Ronnie Brown and the formerly happless Phins ground attack. The final score, Miami 31, Chicago 13.
Could this just be one example against a whole mass of data proving otherwise. Nope. You see "Any given Sunday" applies to more than just weekly matchups. It is a statement identifying the parity that has enveloped the NFL as a sport. Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers were crowned World Champions by winning the Superbowl. Last year, the Houston Texans were awared the first pick in the NFL draft because they were the worst team in the league. Two opposite ends of the spectrum. Ready to discover parity? At the start of business today, both the defending champs, and the defending chumps had 2-5 records.
In April, after the worst team in the league drafted first overall, the second worst team, the New Orleans Saints were on the clock. Now, six months later, the Saints, who were awful last year, won again, and remained in first place in the NFC South. Now I know many of you are thinking "Well of course they are much improved, they drafted Reggie Bush, duh), but it has not been the heisman trophy winning running back from USC that has been the super impactful rookie, but instead, the Saints last pick in the draft, wide reciever Marcus Colston from Hofstra.
For one last piece of evidence, lets look at some pre-season predictions. In the AFC East, many "experts" said the division favorites would be the Miami Dolphins. They finished last year on a six game winning streak, including a win against the Patriots. Those same New England Patriots were predicted to finsh second, most likely because of the huge loss of talent, with Willie McGinist and Adam Vinatieri jumping ship. The Buffalo Bills were going to finish in third in the division, mainly due to their lack of a quality quarterback, and the New York Jets were going to be so bad, many had them competing for the first overall pick, winning maybe 3 games all year. Now half way through the year, the "experts" are proving my point. The Pats are in first again, the losses of McGinist and Vinatieri unnoticed as the team is off to a 6-1 start. The Jets who were told they would only win 3 games all year are in second place with a 4-4 record. The Bills are in fact in third, and the Phins are bringing up the rear rather than leading the pack.
My point ladies and gents is that "Any given Sunday" could also be "Any given Season" and that is why the NFL has replaced Major League Baseball as "America's Game." Each team really does have a chance to win each week. And worst to first is a regular reality in the league. This league is really the most exciting of any of the sports in America because your team always has a chance to make you smile. Now, how 'bout your Abstract.
PS. Speaking of exciting, how about the finish to the Cowboys / Redskins game....
2 comments:
With all due respect to the AGS cliche, I feel that the differance in most games (if not most seasons) can be linked to two stats: turnovers and tips. Given that each year their are four (maybe five) teams in the NFL are truly elite and four on the bottom which are truly hideous, the remaining 24 teams are pretty much equal. What will determine wins or loses in those games are turnovers and a little tracked stat: tipped balls.
Even a good defense is only going to have five or six stops per game. (Offensive penelties are a huge benefit as drive killers and I don't mean to underestimate their impact.) But turnovers are free defensive stops, nevermind the chance for the defense to put some points on the board. A two or three turnover game now puts defensive stops at eight or nine. You may only get the ball ten or twelve times a game. It is hard to win when you limit yourself to two scoring chances, tire your defense and give the opposing offense a short field. It is no wonder most teams going deep into the post-season have great turnover ratios.
But don't neglect the tipped ball. At best, it kills a down. If it is first or second down, it usually means the next play(s) will also be pass plays. If third down, it stops a drive. But tipped balls are the leading cause of interceptions; all teams practice tip drills, from pee-wees to pros. Tipped balls also show possible flaws in an offense: poor QB mechanics, poor line play or poor receiver play. The next time you watch a game, look for the "innocent" tipped ball. But be careful, it may become an all consuming distraction like it has for me.
Yankee - You are correct my friend, turnovers are a key component to winning games in today's NFL. You can look up all of the stats you want and you will prove it. Bottom line, turn the ball over and you will lose more games than you will win.
Having said that, I think you missed my point entirely. I am not trying to argue that games are decided by chance. I agree that there are predictable ways to identify which team will win. Teams that run the ball well seem to win lots of games. So do teams that stop the run real well too. Teams that win the turnover battle , as you mentioned, will win more than they will lose too. I understand all of these things. What I am trying to point out is how even these teams are in terms of talent.
Let me give you a different example. In baseball, fielding, or more accurately errors, play a big difference in wins and loses. Teams that give up a serious amount of unearned runs (runs that result from fielding gaffs) are much more likely to go home with the lose than the win. Now lets look at why there is no parity in baseball. It is not because the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Mets, the Dodgers, and the White Sox are more naturally immune to unearned runs than teams like the Royals, the Devil Rays, and the Pirates. It is because those teams pay for the better players. Better players make fewer of those fielding gaffs, thus those teams commit fewer errors, and lose fewer games.
In football, the same rings true. As Bill Parcells loved to say, "Runningbacks that fumble are other teams runningbacks." What he means is he doesn't want turnover prone player on his team because he knows he will lose more games that way.
In todays NFL however, it seems that there are very few turnover prone players. How can this be? It is a simple matter of talent exceeding need. Players who turn the ball over often, wind up on waivers or in Congress (Heath Shuler anyone?). Combine this with a strong labor agreement (read salary cap) and most teams in the league most years, have comparable amounts of talent. The same cannot be said for baseball, and that is why the "any Given Sunday" mantra holds so well in the NFL.
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